The inventory of homes for sale peaked at 4.5 million units in 2007, fueling the big drop in home prices that we’ve seen. Today, we have the opposite problem: Only 2.49 million homes are for sale, even though demand has risen some 10 percent from a year earlier.
At the same time, the shadow inventory of distressed homes is no longer the threat that it was. While seriously delinquent mortgages remain high, at 7 percent, their share of the market is down from a peak of 10 percent in 2009. That suggests inventory will further decline—unless home builders start building again. But most builders can’t do that because lenders are making few construction loans.
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